Last year, my kids and I enjoyed assembling the Lego Gingerbread House. It was a dream Christmas present.

After carefully packing it away, we unveiled it again this year as a fun Christmas activity.

With almost 1500 bricks, some of them proved quite elusive to find! We poured them all out on a tray and combed through them thoroughly. Many. Times. Over.

If this was a random box of Lego bricks, at this point I would give up, confidently declaring that our desired bricks were absent. But I persisted. I knew those bricks were here somewhere.

A few minutes later…success!

My Bayesian self congratulated me on not letting the wealth of data overwhelm my highly accurate informative prior.